UFC 86 - Picks

UFC 86 is coming up this Saturday, so it's time to make some fight picks. I'm pretty excited about this card and especially the main event is dynamite. Let's get down to business.

Quinton Jackson Vs. Forrest Griffin
I don't know how good Forrest Griffin really is. Usually he looks a bit sloppy but wins due to great cardio and a giant heart. His win against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua was his absolutely best performance of his career. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson is the reigning UFC light heavyweight champion and I'm confident he will retain his belt on Saturday. I feel Jackson is more skilled in all aspects of MMA and stronger than Griffin.
Pick: Quinton Jackson by KO/TKO round 2.

Patrick Cote Vs. Ricardo Almeida
Ricardo Almeida is a world class BJJ black belt, while Patrick Cote's strength is his stand up. Need I say, grappler versus striker? Almeida has had one fight, since his comeback from a 4 year layoff, which he won quickly by submission. Cote had a hard time when he first came to UFC, but has now turned his career around and is on a 4-fight winning streak (3 in the UFC). Although Cote has been more active and has some momentum, I think Almeida will put him on his back and get a submission.
Pick: Ricardo Almeida by submission round 1.

Joe Stevenson Vs. Gleison Tibau
This one is an affair between two good grapplers. Stevenson made his pro debut at the age of 16, won the second season of TUF and recently lost against BJ Penn in a title match. I think Stevenson will win a decision after 15 minutes of action.
Pick: Joe Stevenson by unanimous decision.

Josh Koscheck Vs. Chris Lytle
Chris Lytle is technically the better striker, but Josh Koscheck will probably take him down if he is in any kind of trouble on the feet. Lytle is good enough on the ground not be finished, but not good enough to catch Koscheck in a submission.
Pick: Josh Koscheck by unanimous decision.

Tyson Griffin Vs. Marcus Aurelio
Marcus Aurelio is an absolute monster if the match-up favors him, like when he choked out Takanori Gomi, who was on top of his career at that moment and came of a 10-fight winning streak and the victory in the Pride FC 2005 lightweight GP. Then again, if the match-up is unfavorable, he can be shut down and dominated. This is what I think Tyson Griffin will be able to do.
Pick: Tyson Griffin by unanimous decision.

Gabriel Gonzaga Vs. Justin McCully
Gabriel Gonzaga had a lot of hype after his head kick knock out of Mirko "Crocop" Filipovic, now he has two losses in a row against, Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum, and the hype has faded. Still Gonzaga is better than Justin McCully both on the ground and on the feet.
Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga by submission round 1.

Jorge Gurgel Vs. Cole Miller
Jorge Gurgel has never impressed me. I think he looks small for 155 lb. and has had a lot of problems with injuries. Still he has a decent record, 12-3. Cole Miller is young and has talent. Miller will also have a reach advantage. Both usually fight at a high pace and are good on the ground and standing, with wrestling being their weakness.
Pick: Cole Miller by unanimous decision.

Melvin Guillard Vs. Dennis Siver
Melvin Guillard is talented and has physical tools to be a good fighter, his problems seems to be mostly in his personal life. He got caught with cocaine in his body earlier in his career. He is also submittable if he is put on his back. Dennis Siver though isn't good enough to do this, I think.
Pick: Melvin Guillard by KO/TKO round 1.

Corey Hill Vs. Justin Buchholz
Corey Hill is abnormally tall for this weight division (193 cm/70 kg). He also has an alter ego named Buddy Rowe. He is not as experienced as Justin Buchholz but he is training hard and will stop Buchholz in the first round. Take a look at this interview with Hill.
Pick: Corey Hill by KO/TKO round 1.

Anderson Silva moving up to light heavyweight

As you might know Anderson Silva has accepted a fight against James Irvin on the July 19th UFN card. This fight will be Silva's first in the light heavyweight division. Silva is the reigning UFC middleweight champion and by many considered the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. He has recently looked almost unstoppable and finished his last seven opponents within the two first rounds. Considering his dominance, a move up in weight seems natural.

Still, I'm a bit torn on this fight. Last year was dubbed the year of upsets in the MMA community and fans and journalists were wishing for more consistency. Now, here we have Anderson Silva who could really establish a legacy. Of course if he can dominate the light heavyweight division like he has dominated middleweight he will be in the run for all-time best fighter. If his move up is permanent, I would have liked him to take on a more relevant opponent than Irvin and not on short notice. Irvin is not a top ten fighter, but he has big punch which he showed in his last fight, the 8-second(!) knock out of Houston Alexander. In the end I think Silva's superior technique earn him another K.O.

Regardless of the outcome of the fight it might be that this is a one-and-done deal for Silva and that he will return to middleweight. The first contender for his title at middleweight is, in my opinion, Yushin Okami. Okami is the last man to defeat Silva, albeit via disqualification after an illegal kick. See that fight in the end of this post. That fight was at 175 pounds, which is 30 pounds less than the 205-pound limit for the light heavyweight. So it's not like Silva has to move up in weight. Well, the future will tell which way he Silva decides to go.

Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami:

Dustin Hazelett vs. Josh Burkman

If you haven't seen this fight, do it. It was a prelim to the Ultimate Fighter Season 7 Finale and it should have been on the main card instead of for example Riddle-Rivera.


Spoiler warning!

Dustin Hazelett showed some really impressive BJJ technique. In the first round he had some really good submission attempts and what was even more impressive was how he transitioned from one submission to the next. Josh Burkman also had his moments and connected with some good punches. In the second round Hazelett finally got his submission. And it was sweet! Hazelett had Burkman in a whizzer and jumped into an armbar. Hadn't seen that set up before.

Hazelett is still a young fighter, so I predict a bright future for him. He still needs to work on his wrestling though, especially since the welterweight division is full of good wrestlers. I'm looking forward to seeing Hazelett fight again and hope that it will be on the main card.